In an interview in 1998, Jeff Bezos, founder of Amazon, said:
“In the online world, businesses have the opportunity to develop very deep relationships with customers, both through accepting preferences of customers and then observing their purchase behavior over time, so that you can get that individualized knowledge of the customer and use that individualized knowledge of the customer to accelerate their discovery process.If we can do that, then the customers are going to feel a deep loyalty to us, because we know them so well. They’re going to stick with us because they are going to be able to get a personalized service, a customized website that takes into account the years of relationship we’ve built with them.”
I really like this quote. I wish I had this grasp of the commercial possibilities of the web back in 1998. It makes me feel I’ve been playing catch-up for all the time that has passed since. We now use words like web 2.0 and social media as a shorthand for describing some of the things Jeff is talking about. He doesn’t use them because not only were they not being used in 1998 but there was no need to use them; instead they’ve been expressed in everything Amazon has done over the intervening years. This brings me to two articles I’ve read recently. One, discussed and linked to by my boss Antony Mayfield, asks “Why aren’t there more Googles?” and answers that question with “because every company that had the potential to be economically revolutionary over the last five years sold out”. The concept of ‘selling out’ within a capitalist system and what the term implies is interesting, but we’ll leave that for another post. Antony goes on to highlight Craigslist as one that didn’t ‘sell out’ but what about Amazon? I take looking up things to buy on Amazon as a given these day, it’s my first stop. Not just things I might want to read or watch or listen to, but anything. I didn’t even notice it happening. I just find the site really useful and trust it. Which brings us to the quote above and the second article I read on Wired the other day called Cloud Computing: Available at Amazon.com today. Amazon has already been revolutionary. We forget recent history all too easily; the inflated share prices of 1999 and the turmoil of the subsequent dot com crash. Bezos was on the front cover of Time just prior to staff being laid off and the share price dropping by two-thirds. Yet here we are, ten years on with Amazon not just an online retailer selling its own inventory, but anyone else’s inventory too, new or secondhand. Amazon Associates created multiple entry points across the web directly into Amazon’s product pages with perhaps 40% of sales coming from this affiliate network. Auctions didn’t work but the Marketplace took off. How does it all work? Is Amazon a revolutionary retailer? Or a search engine? Or a software company? Amazon Web Services (AWS) launched in 2002, Mechanical Turk in 2005, Simple Storage Service (S3) and Elastic Compute Cloud (EC2) in 2006. From Cloud Computing: Available at Amazon.com today:
“The more open it is, the more powerful it is. Consumers continue to get the world's best retail experience. Long-tail retailers get the world's best back office, plus shelf space in the mother of all malls. Developers get a cheap, instant, essentially limitless computing cloud.”
Here is the next revolution. Developers don’t need to worry about maintaining servers or restrictions on computing power or storage space as their new web application takes off. They can buy all they need from Amazon. Or Google. Think of the stuff that has come out of Google Labs. Think of the start-ups producing clever mash-ups. The infrastructure to support ideas and innovation on an unimaginable scale can be rented and rented cheaply. What would you do with near limitless computing power and storage available direct from your laptop? From Wikipedia's entry on Greg Egan’s Permutation City:
“Permutation City deals with... philosophical questions... is there any difference between a perfect computer simulation and a "real" person? - but pushes much further the paradoxes arising from the assumption of the Turing computability of human consciousness. Proceeding from here, through rigorous arguments, Egan deconstructs and undermines not only the traditional notions of self, future, and personality, but also of physical reality itself. Eventually, Egan formulates the Logic of the Dust theory of reality, arguing that our universe could be but an algorithm running without the need of any physical substrate.”
1 original comment:
Your best post, ever
Comment by CharlieO — 24 April, 2008 @ 2:19 pm