I've not blogged about peak oil for a couple of months so it was interesting to research the online travel sector recently and see how little this topic is discussed. The travel sector has really pushed social media. There can be no better way of encouraging people to travel than to provide a space where you can see other people's journeys and plan your own, informed by the advice of others who have just been there. There's also no better way of showing off your exploits than by sharing photos or blogging about your experience. It's another example of competitive consumption. Travelling is supported by being able to get where you want to go as cheaply as possible and there are a plethora of sites offering flight price comparisons to help you get the cheapest flight deal available. All this is about to change very quickly. With oil forecast to hit $200 within the next two years fuel costs are set to push up the prices of flights, if not cause airlines to merge or go out of business. On top of that the credit crunch must surely be causing people to be revising their holiday plans. Reports on American and British carriers state that fuel prices are having a serious affect on profits:

"During the first quarter of 2008 American airlines lost $328 million; Delta lost $274 million; United lost $537 million; Continental $80 million; Northwest $191 million; and US Airways $236 million."

Back in 2006 Robert F. Westcott, an adviser to Securing America's Future Energy, produced a report that stated:

"Global airlines are presently under extreme financial pressure with the current level of fuel prices. The total combined expenses for all U.S. air carriers (both domestic and international routes) are about $125 billion a year.2 With oil currently at $60 a barrel, jet fuel costs U.S. air carriers approximately $30 billion a year, or about one-quarter of total expenses. With oil at $120 a barrel, jet fuel will represent about one-half of total expenses (assuming no reduction in demand). Even if airlines were to impose fuel surcharges, they are still likely to cancel routes, lay off workers, cancel orders for new airplanes, or enter bankruptcy."

... and here we are at $120-a-barrel oil. Perhaps discussion about peak oil and its implications will go mainstream through more articles that touch on the subject appearing as the year goes on, particularly once the summer is over and people start to think about the cost of winter fuel. Most commentators still seem to be ignoring the fact the price of a barrel of oil has simply kept on rising and while nervous about the implications of such would rather the problem just went away, reasoning that a global economic slowdown will reduce demand and hence the price. I think we can assume that isn't going to happen and when the full enormity of the situation we're in sinks in the end of cheap travel is going to be the least of our worries. Economic growth requires access to plentiful and cheap sources of energy, two things in increasingly short supply due to our voracious civilisation's demands. The latest peak oil news is aggregated over at PowerSwitch if you want to follow developments.

Update: The Times highlighted the problems faced by both the American and European airline industries at the end of last month. I checked the share prices of five carriers (British Airways, Easyjet, Ryanair, Continental and Delta) over on Google Finance. The results don't look good. They've lost between 40 and 60% of their value since the beginning of 2007.